Wednesday, October 23, 2024

What is the End Game in Ukraine? Victory, Nuclear War or Unending Conflict?

This article was originally written in 2022.  Has there been a negotiated outcome of the Ukraine war? No. It is rather clear that the Biden administration will come to a close without a resolution, exactly as forecast. Kamala might have a better shot at it because she at least did not refer to President Putin as a "war criminal," thereby making it impossible to negotiate. However, the Dems tend to love muddled stalement and perpetual warfare as a preferred "resolution."  Would a second Trump Administration negotiate a resolution overnight?  Probably not that fast, but it will probably happen because both sides are weary of conflict.  I believe Trump would get it done. You don't have to read the Art of the Deal to know that much....

America is spending $54 billion dollars to help Ukraine fight Russian aggression, according to the New York Times. There is no question that Vladimir Putin is an international Pariah, and that the Russians are the aggressors, and that the sympathies of America and most of the West are with Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  But what is the objective of the support America is providing?  Does anyone know?

President Biden has stated America's goal as follows:  "America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression."    

Okay!  We've got that.  But that doesn't end the war. Shouldn't the objective be to end the war somehow? 

Biden indicates that the war should be resolved at the negotiating table, but does not indicate when this should happen or who should win.  That is a slight problem, if we do not know who should win.  

The presumption might be that we are trying to help Ukraine achieve a military victory? The President has also said that he wants Putin to be considered a war criminal.



Further, he wants Putin to be put on trial. How exactly will peace be negotiated if one of the parties is put on trial for war crimes?  Of course he deserves it, but that is not the point. Does President Biden wish to end the war or not? Putin is a sore loser, and has threatened to use nuclear weapons rather than go quietly if the situation worsens. Now, why would Putin agree to some negotiated solution that includes him meekly going to trial as a war criminal?  

There cannot possibly be a negotiated end to the war unless it occurs after a nuclear holocaust as long as the Democrats remain in power. 

Anyway, Ukraine is not really winning the war, despite the spirited press bluster.  Yes, the Russian army is rather incompetent and blundering and has suffered enormous, embarrassing defeats. But they are holding their ground now. The Ukrainian counterattack has bogged down now, though you would not realize it from the constant optimistic jabber from the press, which reports only about the bravery of the Ukrainian people, and takeover of tiny villages. The basic map of battle lines has not changed much recently even though the press makes it sound like the Russians are being routed daily.    

Hence President Biden's objective is probably unending war, and he is succeeding. Ukrainian victory is not an option because that would goad Putin into the use of nuclear weapons. Biden enjoys making empty threats about Putin, but has no stomach for making good on those threats. 

Just as Biden is willing to cut fossil fuel production in America in order to pursue his green energy policies, he is no doubt thrilled to see Russia lose its ability to send fossil energy to Europe.  

Congress should realize that since America has no stomach to win the war, we need to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table by not pretending we will help them achieve military victory. However, it is doubtful whether Congress has any will of its own. Republicans have the main aim of blaming the President for the ills of the country; and Democrats wish to be the Party That is Better Than Trump.  

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