Trust the Gamblers at Election Odds | Who Will Win The Presidency In 2024? (thelines.com). The Village Elliot is an amateur sports handicapper, and in sports terms, it now appears that it's anybody's ballgame, and we're not giving any better than 60-40, President Trump. In fact, I might bet on the new kid, Kamala Harris, even though she was not a first round draft pick. The old guy, President Biden, had fallen to less than 20% at the end. Not good. In fact, I would have put it this way: it would have been far more probable that Trump could have lost the election with a last minute fumble than Biden win it with a last-minute Hail Mary.
So how do we break down the election now that there is a new quarterback for the Blue Team? Well, I've heard this over and over again from commentators on AM radio: "President Biden is the most terrible President in American history...the worst of all time, unbelievable, unprecedented."
Well so what about Vice President Kamala Harris?
"Oh, she's even worse!"
Well, both statements are very unlikely to be true. I encountered the same thing in discussing the merits of the Trump Administration. You may not believe it, but
I predicted his impeachment BEFORE he was even inaugurated, on January 17, 2017.. I suspected the unconventional Trump would butt heads with the establishment. With all the whining about how horrible Trump is, I pointed out to my liberal friends at the time, if 19 Republicans would vote with the Democrats, Mike Pence could replace Trump. "Oh no! He's even worse!" was often often the reply. Well, how could Pence be worse than Trump, if Trump was really a historic anomaly worthy of impeachment? You might not agree with Mike Pence, but he at least had a strong sense of ethics. Does anyone still think he was a Trumplike insurrectionist after his courageous stand on January 6 when Trump supporters were chanting for his death? Whoever thought he was "worse than Trump" should be ashamed. At least he respects the will of the American voters.
No, something is wrong with a major portion of the electorate if they think that each candidate is the worst in history and the next candidate is even worse. This is simply not possible. It is bad handicapping and faulty analysis. This is like a cynical football analyst who takes one look at the quarterback and writes off the season.
The truth is that neither Biden nor Trump are as formidable as they were in 2020. In 2020, Biden was the former Vice President under Obama, and Trump was the incumbent President, not yet tarnished by January 6 and the unsuccessful post-election crusade. By now, Biden is known to have dementia (let's call it what it is) and Trump was permanently tarnished for his role in the post-election insurrection (let's call that what it is too).
Trump, for his part, was a much better President than his opponents give him credit for. Number of wars on his watch = 0. He decreased carbon emissions despite avoiding direct legislation. You may not like his border policy, but by now the Democrats have mostly adopted it. The Covid vaccine was developed during his Administration, not Bidens (if it had come out a few months earlier my guess is many Democrats would have been anti-vaxers just because they hate all things Trump). But Trump's problem was not going home when the voters rejected him. January 6 is hard for many Americans to overcome. The fact that for a long time he was polling about even with a man with Dementia is a sign of great weakness, not resilience.
Even though Kamala has significant problems in transferring campaign donations and negotiating ballot challenges at this late date, and the stigma of not having been tested in the primaries, she has to be stronger than a man with Dementia.
I think she could win if she runs a centrist campaign that compromises with the Right on issues like immigration and energy. She could say, "Well, Republicans, can you pass a bill through both Houses of Congress for me to sign? If not, then there's nothing to talk about, is there? Nya nya!" Make Congress do their job rather than rule by Executive Orders (=Royal Decrees, which Americans are supposedly adverse to, but just love if they come from their darling political party).
Setting a record for donations on the first day is a signal that should impress the Trump campaign.
Mind you, the Harris candidacy does not fix the fact that the Democrats did not allow us to vote in a real primary with real challengers. If they had, Biden would have been exposed and we would have had a real candidate. For that reason, I personally am disinclined to support the corrupt two-party system. It is absurd that a party would even consider running a candidate with Dementia in the first place.
Nevertheless, a candidate without a single vote in a Democratic Primary does have a chance against a Republican whose disregard for the American voter was shocking in the post-election attempted insurrection. It's not that Harris is a great candidate. It's that President Trump is much weaker than most handicappers believe.
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