So Why are New Cases of Covid-19 Decreasing in Sweden?

Why are new cases per capita of Covid-19 apparently decreasing in Sweden even as critics blast the country for failing to control the disease?  This is a statistically significant trend.   I wish to make up my own mind about the situation and I find that the story lines published in media do not make logical sense to me.  

Briefly, the situation is that the Swedish government imposed fewer mandatory restrictions on young, healthy people, while asking older, more vulnerable people to try to isolate themselves.  The rest of the world asked everyone to isolate, healthy or not.  The Swedish idea was that the general population would build up some level of resistance to the disease, keeping in mind that this disease has no cure and that there are no established right answers to refer to.  

This suggests to me that the world urgently needs to be open minded and try to study and learn from what others are doing.  Okay, the entire world has made mistakes starting with the highest medical authorities in the world, but we all have a job to do to look after one another, so let's assign blame later, shall we?  

If the Swedish concept was wrong, what we should have seen is a widespread exponential increase among the young less isolated young people, while the  more isolated elderly people should be about the same as other like countries, right?

Instead, we see the opposite.  The death rate among the elderly was very high early on, among the  highest in Europe.  The incidence of new cases in Sweden is now seen to be significantly decreasing.  This is the exact opposite of what the critics predicted.

Incidentally,  I have noticed that Swedish data for new cases goes up and down with a seven day cycle, apparently because their test rate varies during the week.  I have plotted the per capita new infection rate for Sweden (blue) compared to the same stat for Ohio (red), where I live.  Of course there are a number of variables that affect the number of cases, but Ohio is generally thought to have had a well controlled situation especially early on, while Sweden has become a target for world criticism.    Nevertheless, for months they  tracked similarly, at about 50 new cases per day per million residents (Sweden has about 10.2 million residents, Ohio 11.7 million so we are similar populations too).  Recently Ohio has attempted to restart its economy and is seeing a rise in the number of new cases.  

According to NPR's Bill Chappell, (Swedish Disease Expert Calls WHO's COVID-19 Warning 'A Total Mistake' June 26, 2020) Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says  Dr. Hans Henri P. Kluge, the WHO's regional director for Europe,  made "a total mistake"when it concluded Sweden is seeing a surge of coronavirus cases. Kluge said on Thursday that Sweden, among others, has "accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink once again in Europe." 

Tegnell claims that this big June surge is simply due to increased testing. 

Okay.....so.....IS IT TRUE?   Since peaking on June 24, the Swedish incidence of new cases, is headed distinctly lower.   Are they reporting fake data?  Deaths peaked on April 15 and have been steadily decreasing ever since.  Is it TRUE OR FAKE?  

I've heard some experts say that Swedish society is way for away from being able to resist the disease based on the percentage of people who have antibodies present.  Well, I'm not an expert but it seems to me that  people do not fully understand this disease.  Although many experts are disappointed in the percentage of the population in Sweden and elsewhere that carry Covid-19 antibodies, others have questioned the role that T cells (T lymphocytes) might play in augmenting the human immune system. I'll have to defer to the experts to determine whether T-cells actually change the equation for resisting and slowing down the disease.  Maybe antibodies, T-cells, social distancing and some other x-factor all have roles to play and we ought not just dismiss it as nonsense.  

I think everyone agrees that Sweden would like to have changed procedures to better protect the elderly, because the death rate as of April 15 was much too high, but that's not what this is about, is it?  The question was whether they can avoid the catastrophe of an exponential increase in which  a large fraction of the entire society is ill simultaneously and overloads the medical system.  Instead, we all  hoped to "flatten the curve" to avert a shortage of hospital beds at least until a vaccine or medicines are created.  

I do not wish to use the term "herd immunity" because it is so emotionally charged now that it is a meaningless term.  But what I do want to say is the following:  the numbers now say the number of new cases of Covid-19 peaked on June 24 and have decreased by a statistically significant amount in Sweden, to the point that they are now significantly lower than the numbers in Ohio and the US as a whole.  Either the Swedish government is lying or is not testing or....perhaps it is not so ridiculous to suggest they are succeeding in controlling this disease.  

       

One thing is for sure, there is no let up in relentless criticism of Sweden from the highest levels of international organizations down to supermarket tabloids.

      

Boycott Swedish meatballs at the grocery store if you must.  However, it behooves us to determine whether the numbers are correct before concluding we have nothing to learn from the approach this highly advanced country has taken.

  

Sweden's Covid-19 Policies Bashed, But What do the Numbers Say?

Bashing Sweden for its allegedly lax rules on coronavirus lockdown does not make much sense to me.

In theory, Sweden intended to lock down the elderly and other vulnerable citizens more or less to a similar degree as in other countries. But, they intended to allow somewhat more relaxed, volutary regulations to healthier younger citizens who are more likely to survive. Thus if the strategy were carried out successfully, the death rate should be lower for Sweden than in other countries but the exposure rate and infection rate should be higher especially with the more mobile young people. Countries with more regulation should have a lower rate of infection.

The numbers are not so simple. According to Worldometers, as of June 11, there have been a total of 48,288 cases in Sweden or 0.0478 cases per capita. That is twentieth highest in the world (but lower than several western countries including San Marino, Andorra, Luxembourg, Spain, USA, Iceland, Belarus, Gibraltar, Belgium and Ireland).

However, in terms of per capita death rate, Sweden is seventh. So if you wish to bash other countries, go for San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, and Italy. But America is tenth, so there aren't that many countries we can legitimately bash.

Sweden is followed by France, Netherlands and the USA. Hence, judging from the recent press, many Americans evidently feel they are in a position to criticize and ridicule these other countries for having more fatalities per capita, especially Sweden. But wait. It's not that simple.

Note that in terms of death rate per capita, all ten of these countries rank lower for per capita infection rate.Every single one in the Top 10. In other words, each country is experiencing a relatively high death rate compared to the infection rate. That is the opposite of what might be expected for these advanced Western medical care systems.

Let's take a look at other countries with high per capita infection rate. Qatar has the highest per capita infection rate in the world, but only the 70th highest death rate. That means a higher percentage of infected people in Qatar are getting well than in the European countries, and it's not even close.
Consider Singapore has the ninth highest infection rate per capita, but only 128th highest death rate.

So if you want to bash Swedish medicine, fine, but do not forget to heap immense praise on countries such as Qatar and Singapore, who are greatly outperforming the west. I am not aware of a simple explanation why this is true. However, look at the stats for Sweden (Statista.com) and you will see their high death rate is associated with a large number of deaths of people who are over 70 years old.

Perhaps, if you must bash Sweden (and I wish you would not), they could be bashed for not being able to protect elderly persons. But even after adjusting for age groups, the numbers say that the cure rate is much higher in so-called third world countries than in Europe. And within Europe, Sweden's numbers are comparable to or a little better than some of its neighbors. So, are bad regulations in Sweden causing high death rates in these other European countries, higher than in Sweden? How could that be possible? There must be something else besides rules that needs to be considered.

We have to admit that we do not have a cure for Coronavirus. As long as there is a single death from this disease, it is too many and as a society, we must all strive to do better. The ability to protect people from contracting the illness, and the ability to treat the illness are going to improve with time. Different countries are trying different things, and we can all learn from one another if we quit bashing each other and figure out what works well and what does not. It is inappropriate to issue harsh condemnation of policies and medical care in any country, especially one that is not your own, because this disease breaks all the rules. It is NOT simple to understand, and we ALL have much to learn about it. It is not just Sweden that wants to improve its performance.

So, in my opinion Sweden is not insane and not a rogue nation. Sweden does not deserve to be bashed. They should not be accused of medical malpractice. Yes, they can and should evolve better prevention, detection and treatments. So should we all.