Thursday, January 4, 2024

Nikki Haley will be Our Next President


Call me crazy.  I believe Nikki Haley is going to win. 

I sometimes make outlandish predictions. In 2010 I told my students at West Virginia University that Donald Trump would be President if he ever decided to run, on the grounds that he had the most media exposure, and Americans truly wanted an alternative candidate rather than another party hack. When it actually became time in 2016, I predicted he would win while major news organizations were refusing to cover his candidacy, believing it was a publicity stunt. I also predicted that Bernie Sanders would mount a challenge to Hillary Clinton.  

I also predicted that President Trump would be impeached back in 2017. And as Casey Stengel used to say, you can look it up! 

This year, it seems to me, the hard part is winning the Republican nomination.  The easier task is defeating President Biden in the November Election. Biden's weaknesses are duly noted. He is a doddering geriatric case who is seeking to claim more power for the Executive Branch on behalf of his power-mad political party, just as Donald Trump is seeking to do for his party.  Biden just has less bombast, but the goal is the same: absolute power, with his rival hopefully thrown in jail. 

The party process is so corrupt that it is impossible for a contender to mount a serious challenge within the Democratic ranks or else someone--anyone--would. However, the Democratic Party has assumed so much power that there will be no opportunity for a challenger to win. They are stuck with a deteriorating geriatric case as their candidate and nothing can be done about it. 

For that matter, President Trump suffers from the same problems as President Biden: old age and being the symbol of a Party eager to dominate American politics in perpetuity in defiance of the Constitution. Both parties seek to rule America by Executive Order.  Whenever there is a change of Political Party, there is a stack of Executive Orders waiting to be signed.  Keystone Pipeline?  If it's a Republican, gone within 24 hours of assuming office; if it's a Democrat, restored within 24 hours.  Build a wall? Republican President, yes, Democrat, no.  Legal support for Black lives matter? Democrat yes, Republican no. 

These issues should be carefully legislated by our Congress but instead they are put in place by the Almighty Political Party of the President, and Americans are okay with that.  Our choices are doddering would-be dictators Trump and Biden. Well, perhaps Americans are looking for alternatives. 

Both Trump and Biden will seek to end Democracy. Haley may--MAY--offer an alternative to confrontational and dominant pure party rule.  For that reason I believe sensible Americans will vote for her.

Currently she is gaining momentum in New Hampshire. Once Trump establishes himself as a has-been loser, I don't see him regaining momentum and restoring the Trump Presidency as the alternative to a Biden dictatorship. Do you?  

One line sticks with me against President Trump. "If you have to lie to win, you don't deserve to win."

Friday, August 18, 2023

Vivek Ramaswamy is the Only Candidate Who Makes Sense to me.   

Vivek Ramaswamy is the only Candidate who makes sense to me. Why?  Let's keep it simple.  Ramaswamy is promising to pardon Donald Trump. Other Republicans are wishy-washy about what would happen, whereas the Democrats universally call for trial, conviction and jail time. 

The Democrats need to be rebuked. They need to understand that it is not realistic to obtain a guilty verdict via jury trial against President Trump. Why not? Because the jury will be inevitably become known publicly and thus in imminent danger of death by mob violence, and their families will be in the same situation also. This is not to suggest organized crime, but DISorganized fans of Donald Trump will certainly react, and everyone with an IQ over 1/2 should understand this. So how are we going to find 12 people willing to risk their lives and the lives of their families to deliver a guilty verdict? Hello, Democrats, you are not going to do that. It is not possible. The visions of a contrite Donald shuffling off to jail will never ever come true because obtain a guilty verdict via a jury trial is not possible with 12 Democrats in a jury, and that in itself would be a sham.  If you have 10 Democrats and 2 Republicans it will be at best a hung jury, and the 10 Democrats will still be in terrible danger when the trial is over.  You cannot do this. 

The only way to successfully disengage from this disastrous path is for the next President, whoever he or she is, to grant President Trump a pardon.  

Ramaswamy is the only candidate who promises to pardon Donald Trump. This is just such common sense. Every other candidate, both Democrat and Republican is so beholden to party interests that they are headed to a crisis and they can't see it coming. Dealing with the trial of Donald Trump is a headache that this country does not need. It is conceivable that the two sides might resort to Civil War to alleviate their angst. 

On the other hand the country cannot allow Trump back into the Oval Office because he might never leave. That would be the end of the Constitutional Republic and the US government would basically become a family-owned business.

Biden would certainly not consider a Trump pardon. He would see nothing wrong with leading the USA into a new Civil War as long as he believed that the Democrats would win it. Moreover, there is no opposition Democrat, since the party refuses to sponsor primary debates. So forget all about that. The nomination process is indeed rigged so that Biden will be the nominee whether the people like it or not.  

You can look at Trump's rising numbers and interpret them as rising confidence in him by Republicans, and perhaps this is so. However, it may also be that Republicans are bailing on the party's choice,  Florida Governor DeSantis, just as they bailed on party choice Florida Governor Jeb Bush in 2016. For whatever reason, Americans seem to not like being told who to vote for. It may be that the Republican platform is a bit out of touch with the way voters really feel. My personal feeling is that Republicans talk a good ballgame of fiscal responsibility, but if you vote them in, they will spend like hell on their friends (compromising in some cases by also spending on some of the Democrats' friends), generally protecting big dollar programs while damaging American workers and people who need help. If you don't understand what I mean, go back to the 2016 debates and listen how the other candidates referred to America's "investment" in Iraq, while Donald Trump called Iraq a "disastrous mistake." That's why big dollar Republicans wanted Jeb Bush to maintain the status quo, and the voters rejected the wishes of the party, much to their chagrin.

Look, you can't have a system in which we try to throw the previous Administration in jail all the time. You are not locking up Obama or the Clintons.  You are not locking up Biden, either, despite the fact that he is a hardliner daring Trump to start something. Nor are you locking up Trump. That's just not how our system works. This is not the French Revolution, where we chop people's heads off and accept no compromises. 

Hello, this is America, where we used to--and will again--have a loyal opposition, in which we talk to each and reason with one another.  Republicans and Democrats both love their children and get along.

That is why Trump is going to be pardoned and someone else is going to run in his place. It should be someone like Vivek Ramaswamy, rather than a party favorite. Right now, he is the only one making any sense in the Republican field.  

Sunday, July 30, 2023

Peace in Ukraine has no Military Solution

 Peace in Ukraine has no Military Solution


Media reports that Ukraine has gained a few square miles of land in their great summer counter-offensive is a cruel joke. Just shut up. Admit that the war is almost perfectly stalemated. Military victory is impossible because the Russian side has nuclear weapons, and President Putin would rather be personally castrated rather than suffer a military defeat on the battlefield. It defies logic to believe in a military solution.
Nevertheless, as of July 30, breathless reporting by CNN is telling us about key battles around the towns of Staromalorske and Velyka Novosylka, trying to convince us that there is real hope for a military breakthrough. 

It's not just CNN, of course. They are joined by the majority of mainstream media worldwide. However, according to Wikipedia, the population of Stromalorske, last we knew, was 839.  Velyka Novosylka was significantly larger, a teeming metropolis of over 5,000 people. God bless them, but guessing that Russia controls about 25% of a country of 40 million, there needs to be 2000 such events to win the war. A victory per week means the Russians would be vanquished in only 40 years if there are no further problems and if nuclear weapons are not employed (but they will be). This does not seem like a path to success unless there is a remarkable change.  Does the mainstream, global media feel it has a vested interest in promoting an illogical legend about an imminent Ukrainian victory? 

The Administration seems extremely content with military stalemate, though the media seems uncomfortable in reporting it that way. By calling Putin a "War Criminal," President Biden has made negotiations next impossible. Can anyone imagine a scenario in which Putin declares a willingness to negotiate peace so that he can be judged as a War Criminal and hanged?  The Republicans have completely missed the point, choosing to tease the President about another age-related gaffe. No, it is not. It was a careful, deliberate and thoughtful proclamation guaranteed to ensure perpetual warfare, and you Republicans failed to take the President seriously because you are more interested in name-calling rather than dealing with matters of serious global politics.

The Administration regards Russia as a threat to world security, not our ally, and Russia is bogged down in a war that they cannot win. Putin has been suckered into the hugest blunder of his career, and President Biden will not let him off the hook.  
President Biden is not particularly fond of Ukraine, either. Recall that he threatened to withhold aid from Ukraine while he was Vice President. If you are a Democrat, you probably believe it was to force the Ukrainians to clean up corruption in their military-industrial complex. If you are a Republican, you may believe it had to do with protecting Hunter Biden from his part in those corrupt dealings. But either way, as Vice President, Joe Biden was not a friend of Ukraine. Nothing has changed to make him love Ukraine today. He probably dislikes Ukraine less than he dislikes Russia, but he is far, very far, from a true ally. He sees no advantage in a strong Ukraine and certainly sees no advantage in relief for Russia He is content to damage both potential adversaries by supporting an almost perfect stalemate.
That is why the US supports Ukraine with maximal aid, some $113 billion in 2022, ten times more than the next largest contributor. 

The US is far and away the largest investor in the Ukraine stalemate. Note that the red portion is the military part.  

This war may never stop unless the US Congress develops enough spine to force President Biden and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to the negotiating table by threatening to limit funds for weapons.  Similarly, a leadership change in Russia would be very helpful, though nobody, including the Russians, is quite sure how that is actually brought about.  




Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Kennel's Law of Internet Sarcasm

 I had better write this down so I can take credit for it:

Kennel's Law of Internet Sarcasm: Nothing you can post on the internet is so stupid that someone won't take it seriously.  

The consequences of this simple law are quite profound. It means that you have to be very careful about attempting to use sarcastic humor.  Ethnic jokes?  Racial humor? Usually not a good idea. 

It's too bad. From the time of William Shakespeare, Anglo Saxons have enjoyed making fun of themselves and laughing together.  I am not Anglo by blood, but I've grown up in America, so culturally I'm pretty much tuned in to their way of thought. I let you make fun of me, you let me make fun of you, and we are both jolly good fellows. We are willing to let our guard down with each other.  However, not all cultures are like that!! Some cultures assume you mean what you say, and insults are insults.  

In 1729, Jonathan Swift wrote "A Modest Proposal" in which he suggested that poor Irish people should sell their children as food to rich English people. This was satire. Swift's point was that the English upper class were way too rich and draconian in their approach to their Irish neighbors. They should have come up with some reasonable plan to help ease unfair economic conditions involving Irish people. Most readers got the point and were sympathetic to the cause of the oppressed Irish people, or at least put off by the draconian aristocracy mocked by Swift's satire.  

Nowadays, if this were published online, someone would think that Swift was seriously proposing that Irish children should be eaten by rich English people. This would be standard fare on AM radio.  Some people would get very offended, or worse, others would think it is a good idea. It's hard to imagine Democrats and Republicans agreeing on anything, so one party would probably wind up supporting it.  


   


Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Mustang to Paducah has Comedy, Suspense, Mystery, 60's Vibe

 


Mustang to Paducah is Raul Ramos y Sanchez's newest, and--in this reviewer's opinion--best work to date. What could be more iconic than a shiny new Ford Mustang in the 1960's? What if someone was willing to pay you and your best friend to drive it cross-country? Nothing could be finer, unless of course, you and your best friend are magnets for trouble, which is exactly the situation of two likeable young men in Mustang to Paducah. Sometimes the trouble is the law, sometimes it's about women and sometimes it's lawless thugs, but somehow they either find trouble or trouble finds them.     

Hopefully this book will be made into a movie, because it has that feel. If you liked The Fugitive, with Harrison Ford and Tommy Lee Jones, you will like this book. However, this is not the story of an action hero like Harrison Ford, it's more like a comic duo Cheech and Chong, the two hippies from the 1960's.  This book is definitely a comedy. It is quick paced and fun.

This is also a period piece, so you may find yourself immersed in the 1960s like Forrest Gump. An interesting wrinkle in this story is that one of the characters, Nestor "Cruiser" Cruz, was born in Cuba but has lived in America since age 11 and considers himself fully Americanized.  But reminders of his heritage pop up in unexpected ways.

Has Hollywood ever made a comedy about the 1960s?  If not, why not?  Hurry the hell up before we die, how about?  Mustang to Paducah could be the perfect vehicle.  



Sunday, June 26, 2022

Elvis Lives! Austin Butler's Star is Born!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp2BNHwbwvI



 I was the first kid on my block to see Elvis, attending without hours of the first release at Regal, a few hundred yards from my house.  I give this one five stars.  I don't get why some of the early reviews were intensely negative, although in his career some people loved Elvis and some hated him. 

My family was an anti-Elvis family.  My Dad liked Hank Snow, the former straight-laced touring mate of Elvis who thought that Elvis was immoral.  My Mom was taught by American missionaries in Korea that all music except for European classical music was created by and for barbarians (literally). They were especially taught not to play drums. So she wasn't much of a fan either.   

I didn't recognize Tom Hanks, who deserves an Oscar.  I had never heard of Austin Butler prior to this film, but he too deserves an Oscar, because he makes Elvis come to life, especially on stage. It's easy to impersonate Elvis, but hard to make him real.  Butler was remarkable.   Like the old murder mysteries, Butler did it!  

I predict that this movie will trigger an Elvis revival this summer. Elvis has never really left the building, but our culture is really determined by those of us who are, say, 13 to 23 years old. Music is meant to be danced to by single people. It's in our blood from prehistory. It's how young men and women find each other, and that is exactly what is going to happen again.    

As an adult I have understood that Rock 'n Roll was tightly connected to the music of Africa and that the chord progressions are Scotch-Irish overlaid on the the African Blues Scale. But what I didn't realize was that Elvis was heavily and directly influenced by African American gospel music as a kid. I thought it was a cliche that Elvis was a white kid who sung black, but the movie made clear exactly what was meant. In fact, I didn't know much about Elvis as a child, so that part was totally new for me and very interesting. 

In that way, Elvis truly connects African American and European cultures. It is much more than just sound. It's why the rest of the world is so fascinated by America. Maybe Americans have never fully understood or appreciated our unique role, and many have been terrified by it.  

As a period piece, it was a great movie.  I am more than 20 years younger than Elvis, but we are close enough in age that I think I know what his world should look like and how it should feel, and, at least to me, they pretty much nailed it. 

One story that was not covered was the first concert north of the Mason-Dixon Line, which occurred in the Circle Theater in Cleveland in 1954. It's part of the rationale for locating the Rock 'N Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland. The show was called Hillbilly Jamboree and two of the people in the audience included my future parents, Byron Kennel and Sook Cha Lee.  

The version I heard was that the screaming was definitely for real, but they did not know who this kid was and they were not impressed.  My mother supposedly fell asleep, but my theory is that this was an act of passive aggression to show how mad she was at being taken to a crowd of literal barbarians. 

But later, I realized that this fusion of African and Scotch Irish music was the most awesome sound God could ever give humanity. My parents didn't think so, but it was. This is what made us Americans.

It took me back into the 1960s.  Even though I saw Elvis through a teen's eyes, my kid's brain was recording information back then, and probably working better then than it is now, to be quite candid.  I remember the phenomenon quite clearly, the good and the bad. The movie took me back and gave me an earlier starting point on his life, and of course told the story from the inside, rather than from the perspective of a fan or outsider. 

It would be so interesting to learn how today's teenagers will view this movie.  My kids have not seen it yet. I wonder if they will reignite the craze, or whether they will figure, well, we've seen Elvis impersonators before, so it's not big of a deal.  I have to believe things are going to get All Shook Up before the summer is over.  

Elvis Lives!!  




Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Is Vladimir Putin Too Big to Fail?

 

Is Vladimir Putin too big too fail?  That is, the United States is so fearful of the potential for what he might do--nuclear retaliation or other weapons of mass destruction, that the US does not wish to provoke him by allowing the Ukraine to defeat him.  

Witness when the Ukrainians blew up a fuel depot in Russian territory, CNN referred to that action as "Biden's worst nightmare."  Apparently Zelenskiy's military is supposed to just sit there and take it, and this is regarded as sound policy, and I find that disturbing. 

If we are not going to allow Putin to be damaged too severely, what about the business of calling him "War Criminal" and demanding that he stand trial?  This assures that there will not be a negotiated end to the war. Why would Putin sign a peace treaty that results in him being tried, found guilty of being a War Criminal and punished accordingly (i.e., certainly being removed from power and being sent to jail)? Do we in the West sincerely believe he is going to passively agree to this? 

If there is nothing good that happens, no relief from sanctions, only a jail term, good luck waiting for Putin to agree.

Also good luck waiting for a military coup in Russia or fair elections. This news flash just in--the electoral process in Russia is not fair and the elections are not real. It is a dictatorship, and dictators generally do not lose elections. Admittedly, Putin is not all powerful and there is some chance that a coup could occur. Russia had a coup in 1917 and one in 1991 which failed. But if the American plan is to wait for Russia to solve its Putin problem by itself it may be a very long time.  

The American plan for handling Putin is a fear-based initiative. We are so fearful of what he might do.  Hence the US approach appears to be to continue the war and maintain the status quo. We apparently feel the need to resist the temptation to support Ukraine too strongly, such that it might offend Comrade Putin.  We will not allow, for example, Poland to send MIG aircraft to the Ukrainians because that would be considered a provocation, although it is okay to send anti-tank missiles and hand-held munitions and the like. Limited engagement seems to be the desire, small successes, but we must also protect Comrade Putin and not get him too upset lest he become even more insane than he is already. 

Okay? So no aircraft for Ukraine, no A-10 tank killers, nothing that might result in the Ukraine actually winning.  

The amount of money that the US has sent in military aid is a pathetically small about: about $2.5 billion dollars at the time of this writing.  That 's about three tenths of one percent of our defense budget for the fight that we believe is the most serious since World War II.  By comparison, Girl Scout cookies generate about $800 million in revenue each year, so the US has contributed about three times as much money as Girl Scout cookie sales.  Maybe President Biden can hold a series of patriotic bake sales to help out our friends in the Ukraine?  It's ridiculous.  The only conclusion is that we are afraid of Comrade Putin and will not allow him to lose and cause him to lose his temper.  

Here in Beavercreek Ohio, my family lives only a few miles from the largest Air Force Base in the world.  We know we are going to be targeted if there is a nuclear exchange with Russia. But there is no risk-free solution. Placating Putin carries as much or greater risk than opposing him. Speaking for myself, I wish our government had some balls and would go for the win in Ukraine.  We have to take a stand. Perpetual Iraq-style war is not the answer. Throw the Russian bastards out of Ukraine. 

At the same time, there should be a path for a negotiated peace. President Biden has needlessly closed this off.  He  has to shut up about putting Putin on trial for War Crimes.  Does anyone believe that Putin will voluntarily appear in court? This can only happen if there is an unconditional surrender or a coup, and this is simply not realistic.  The President's needlessly provocative talk is harmful and has ended the negotiation process rather than promoting it.  Biden has to offer something good that will happen if Russia agrees to pull out, like lifting some of the embargos or sanctions and allowing Putin to keep his job. If nothing positive can be offered under any conditions, there will never be an agreement to end the war, it's as simple as that.

The current US policy is name-calling and promises of imprisonment, thereby ensuring that a negotiated peace is impossible. At the same time, the US is too fearful to allow a Ukrainian military victory, so we wish to protect Comrade Putin and prevent him from failing and getting too upset.  Putin is too big to fail. The American approach of appeasement on the one hand, combined with refusal to permit a negotiated settlement on the other, is totally inadequate.  We shall sit on the sidelines and cheer for Ukraine as their country is destroyed, and call Putin some bad names and feel that we are accomplishing something.  That appears to be our plan, and it is disgusting.