Sunday, January 15, 2017

Will Mr. Trump be able to Complete his Four Year Term?

Mike Pence may not be anyone's ideal President, but he seems to be honest and highly principled.  I believe there is a very good chance he will be our next President.  


      A year ago, I infamously suggested that Donald Trump was more likely to become the next President than Secretary Clinton.   Well, the Village Elliot does not claim to be very bright, but you have to admit that assessment was not so ridiculous  after all.  
    Let me make another prediction, and I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.  But I think that in about three years, there is a very good chance that  Mr. Trump will leave the Presidency.  
    Currently, the Republicans have a majority in the Senate of 52-48.  That means if 19 Republicans vote with the Democrats, they can have a two -thirds majority.  
    I think there is a significant probability that 19  Republican Senators will decide they would rather have Mike Pence as the President, and if so they could impeach the President.
    As I understand it, the House decides to impeach based on a majority vote, and then the Senate needs a 2/3 majority to remove the President from Office.  The grounds for impeachment can include treason and high crimes, but as I understand it, they are not limited to that.  There does not have to be a conviction on a criminal offense. In any case there are all sorts of ethical violations and other problems that could reasonably be used as grounds for impeachment.
    There are a lot of Republicans that do not like Mr. Trump. It's not necessarily his politics that offend Republicans, but the way he seems to be prepared to represent our country that falls short of standards.  If there is one thing we can count on, it is that all 48 Democrats will vote for his removal, and if they are joined by 19 Republicans, then it would behoove Mr. Trump to leave as gracefully as possible.   I believe he will wisely pardon himself and his family in order to return to his normal life as a billionaire tycoon and reality TV star.  He'll turn a handsome profit on the deal, you can be sure.   We will just want him out with as little mess as possible. 

     Then, in 2020, we will repeat the entire process. Hopefully, the American people will have more control over the process than we did in 2016.  

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