When the news of the US bombing in Tehran broke, I could not believe it. Nothing made sense. How could Iran be a threat to anyone with nuclear weapons? Weren't we told by the President of the United State that Iran's nuclear weapons program had been OBLITERATED? How then could Iran be poised to carry out a nuclear attack as the President seems to claim?
The short answer is--stop the presses--our President has a tendency to be overly bombastic, which resulted in overstating US success and more recently overstating the threat posed by Iraq. Recall that the US used Bunker Buster bombs in June 2025 to penetrate deep underground and blow up the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (near Qom, ~80m deep), and the Natanz Nuclear Facility (including the deep "Pickaxe Mountain" site) while also destroying surface facilities at Isfahan.
Recall that the news media was shown overhead photography of the Fordow and Natanz sites, clearly showing debris that had been blown out of the access tunnels. Clearly whatever was inside those facilities had been blown to smithereens.
However what most of us were missing was that although the surface facilities at Isfahan were destroyed, the deepest underground site at Isfahan was too deep to be affected by even a Bunker Buster. For that reason, the Bunker Buster was not used against Isfahan! Thus whatever was down there--possibly the bomb test site and a stockpile of enriched uranium and equipment to further enrich it to bomb grade--likely survived.
So it is quite plausible that sometime between now and and the next century or two Iran could have a nuclear weapons capability. Now, about the claim that Iran was going to have a nuclear weapon within two weeks, I think what the President may have meant was, had the US not bombed the nuclear sites on June 22, 2025, they would have had a nuclear weapon in two weeks. That is probably a gross exaggeration, which is part of the reason many Americans have trouble trusting this President. Nevertheless I personally have no problem with the actions he took at that time.
So why are we going in at this time? Well, the President said at the time that he was sympathetic to protestors in Iran.
"Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations."
That's what he said at the time the decision was made.
So his plan is to blow things up and hope that something good happens. The President has trusted his own hunch, or instinct, over the advice of his closest advisors. Taking out the Navy and Air Force is great. Remember, however, that protestors will be armed with rocks, while the Shiite authorities will have automatic weapons.
Ironically, President Trump's political career was launched by his takedown of the Bush political dynasty. Both Bushes were irrationally frightened of Iraq. Bush I sought to rescue the Emir of Kuwait from an Iraqi takeover. Bush II used the opportunity presented by Osama Bin Laden, a Saudi National who had fought in Afghanistan and sponsored global terrorism, but who had never been in Iraq as far as we know. Iraq had nothing to do with 911, but the US attacked them anyway, hoping to improve things by doing so. Jeb Bush argued that his brother George W. had "kept America safe" by throwing trillions of dollars into Iraq, and Trump trashed the Bushes in the Republican Presidential debates, rightly so. Both Bush President gave us an unnecessary war, a Recession and huge Deficit to the tune of trillions of dollars. Now, President Trump is creating his own version of George W.'s plan.
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