Is Vladimir Putin Too Big to Fail?

 

Is Vladimir Putin too big too fail?  That is, the United States is so fearful of the potential for what he might do--nuclear retaliation or other weapons of mass destruction, that the US does not wish to provoke him by allowing the Ukraine to defeat him.  

Witness when the Ukrainians blew up a fuel depot in Russian territory, CNN referred to that action as "Biden's worst nightmare."  Apparently Zelenskiy's military is supposed to just sit there and take it, and this is regarded as sound policy, and I find that disturbing. 

If we are not going to allow Putin to be damaged too severely, what about the business of calling him "War Criminal" and demanding that he stand trial?  This assures that there will not be a negotiated end to the war. Why would Putin sign a peace treaty that results in him being tried, found guilty of being a War Criminal and punished accordingly (i.e., certainly being removed from power and being sent to jail)? Do we in the West sincerely believe he is going to passively agree to this? 

If there is nothing good that happens, no relief from sanctions, only a jail term, good luck waiting for Putin to agree.

Also good luck waiting for a military coup in Russia or fair elections. This news flash just in--the electoral process in Russia is not fair and the elections are not real. It is a dictatorship, and dictators generally do not lose elections. Admittedly, Putin is not all powerful and there is some chance that a coup could occur. Russia had a coup in 1917 and one in 1991 which failed. But if the American plan is to wait for Russia to solve its Putin problem by itself it may be a very long time.  

The American plan for handling Putin is a fear-based initiative. We are so fearful of what he might do.  Hence the US approach appears to be to continue the war and maintain the status quo. We apparently feel the need to resist the temptation to support Ukraine too strongly, such that it might offend Comrade Putin.  We will not allow, for example, Poland to send MIG aircraft to the Ukrainians because that would be considered a provocation, although it is okay to send anti-tank missiles and hand-held munitions and the like. Limited engagement seems to be the desire, small successes, but we must also protect Comrade Putin and not get him too upset lest he become even more insane than he is already. 

Okay? So no aircraft for Ukraine, no A-10 tank killers, nothing that might result in the Ukraine actually winning.  

The amount of money that the US has sent in military aid is a pathetically small about: about $2.5 billion dollars at the time of this writing.  That 's about three tenths of one percent of our defense budget for the fight that we believe is the most serious since World War II.  By comparison, Girl Scout cookies generate about $800 million in revenue each year, so the US has contributed about three times as much money as Girl Scout cookie sales.  Maybe President Biden can hold a series of patriotic bake sales to help out our friends in the Ukraine?  It's ridiculous.  The only conclusion is that we are afraid of Comrade Putin and will not allow him to lose and cause him to lose his temper.  

Here in Beavercreek Ohio, my family lives only a few miles from the largest Air Force Base in the world.  We know we are going to be targeted if there is a nuclear exchange with Russia. But there is no risk-free solution. Placating Putin carries as much or greater risk than opposing him. Speaking for myself, I wish our government had some balls and would go for the win in Ukraine.  We have to take a stand. Perpetual Iraq-style war is not the answer. Throw the Russian bastards out of Ukraine. 

At the same time, there should be a path for a negotiated peace. President Biden has needlessly closed this off.  He  has to shut up about putting Putin on trial for War Crimes.  Does anyone believe that Putin will voluntarily appear in court? This can only happen if there is an unconditional surrender or a coup, and this is simply not realistic.  The President's needlessly provocative talk is harmful and has ended the negotiation process rather than promoting it.  Biden has to offer something good that will happen if Russia agrees to pull out, like lifting some of the embargos or sanctions and allowing Putin to keep his job. If nothing positive can be offered under any conditions, there will never be an agreement to end the war, it's as simple as that.

The current US policy is name-calling and promises of imprisonment, thereby ensuring that a negotiated peace is impossible. At the same time, the US is too fearful to allow a Ukrainian military victory, so we wish to protect Comrade Putin and prevent him from failing and getting too upset.  Putin is too big to fail. The American approach of appeasement on the one hand, combined with refusal to permit a negotiated settlement on the other, is totally inadequate.  We shall sit on the sidelines and cheer for Ukraine as their country is destroyed, and call Putin some bad names and feel that we are accomplishing something.  That appears to be our plan, and it is disgusting.