Sweden and Ohio both Combating COVID-19

I've been following the progress of COVID-19 in Ohio, and recently also started to follow Sweden, which has been in the news lately. 

Ohio was one of the first states to lock down, and has received mostly favorable attention for having done so.  I'm grateful to our governor and director of health for having acted quickly; though I have been mildly critical of their use of numbers that do not seem to be supported

Swedish health officials are variously described as pariahs for not enforcing lockdowns to the same extent as other countries; or are considered geniuses for not enforcing lockdowns to the same extent as other countries. 

I'm not sure who is on what side, but certainly I expect one political party in America to embrace what Sweden has done, and the other party will deplore it. This is wrong. There are any number of reasons why conditions are different in one location compared to another. 

We can't just say, well Sweden should copy Ohio, or Ohio should copy Sweden. 

What we should do is see if there are differences in approach that are beneficial, and see if we can learn from these differences.   Different regions will try different approaches.  Can we learn from what another region does, and apply that in our own situation?   Learn and adapt, don't just  judge and condemn.  

Anyway, one of my friends who is a respected professional asked me to share what I know (or don't know).   I took trouble to plot the Sweden data on daily new cases  to compare it to the Ohio data for daily new cases.  Sweden has a population of some 10.2 million and Ohio is around 11.7 million so the population base is comparable.  Sweden encountered COVID at least a week before Ohio.  

The question everyone wants to answer is whether the limited quarantine of Sweden can be close to the same effectiveness as the stronger quarantine of Ohio. 

My opinion, as of today, April 12 2020, is that I cannot make a definite comparison between Sweden and Ohio.  The Ohio data appears to be leveling off, but the Swedish situation is not possible to resolve yet. Here is why:

1.  We do not know who is being tested and who is not in either country.  Buzz in Ohio is that we did not have enough test kits early on. Do we have enough now?  I have not seen the number, though they are still saying they believe that there are more cases than show up in the statistics.  On the other hand, what about the people who have the bug but are not sick enough to go to the doctor?  They may just decide to stay indoors for a while and are not counted.  These effects could be different for any number of economic, cultural and situational differences in different countries.  Bottom line is that someone like me can graph the data, but it takes someone with real knowledge of the local conditions to infer the true situation. 

2.  As noted previously Sweden is not Ohio.  We simply can not rule out differences in climate, lifestyle, population density.  Rather, we need to try to account for these differences as we seek to learn from each other and save lives.  

3.  The recent data from Sweden shows two statistically significant peaks, one on 4/2 and the other about 4/9.  These peaks are too large to be attributed to random statistical variation. It could be something as innocent as a backlog of test data for a few days, and then getting caught up a few days later, or  something like that.  Or maybe there were outbreaks  that raised the number of positive tests.  I do not know what caused the apparent peaks, but until there is a s better understanding, I can not conclude whether that the true number of cases is rising exponentially, or whether it may be leveling off.   I just don't know yet.