Readers of the Village Elliot's blog are aware that he predicted that we would have a cold winter this year, based on three simple observations:
a. We are in a La Nina phase, in which an upwelling of cool water in the Pacific equatorial region usually leads to colder weather worldwide.
b. The Polar Oscillation favors a cold winter. This weather pattern led to last year's cold winter as well as the cold winters of 1978-1979.
c. The North Atlantic Anomaly also is shifting in a way that favors cold winters in Northern Europe.
This is just simple stuff you can get from reading the paper or checking out websites like the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The fact that we are having a cold winter doesn't mean squat as to whether the climate is changing over the long run.
Let's review, however, that carbon dioxide induced global warming is supposed to make the earth 2-3 degrees celsius warmer from 1999 to the hear 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The Village Elliot is certain that the mechanism exists, based on studies of the planet Venus, which is definitely warmer than we would expect, and the reason is carbon dioxide, over a thousand psi of it. Will similar effects occur if CO2 is present at a few hundred parts per million?
The Village Elliot also believes that the globe certainly heated up between 1975 and 2002, using data from the NCDC. The same data, however, points to no significant warming since 2002.
TheCO2 hypothesis also suggests that the difference between summer and winter should decrease, with most of the warming haplpening during the winter. This has simply not happened, however. Nor do we see warmer nights compared to days.
Is this confusing? Well, fear not! Here, from our friends in England, is the definitive video which will tell you how to be politicially correct: