Peace in Ukraine has no Military Solution
Media reports that Ukraine has gained a few square miles of land in their great summer counter-offensive is a cruel joke. Just shut up. Admit that the war is almost perfectly stalemated. Military victory is impossible because the Russian side has nuclear weapons, and President Putin would rather be personally castrated rather than suffer a military defeat on the battlefield. It defies logic to believe in a military solution.
Nevertheless, as of July 30, breathless reporting by CNN is telling us about key battles around the towns of Staromalorske and Velyka Novosylka, trying to convince us that there is real hope for a military breakthrough.
Nevertheless, as of July 30, breathless reporting by CNN is telling us about key battles around the towns of Staromalorske and Velyka Novosylka, trying to convince us that there is real hope for a military breakthrough.
It's not just CNN, of course. They are joined by the majority of mainstream media worldwide. However, according to Wikipedia, the population of Stromalorske, last we knew, was 839. Velyka Novosylka was significantly larger, a teeming metropolis of over 5,000 people. God bless them, but guessing that Russia controls about 25% of a country of 40 million, there needs to be 2000 such events to win the war. A victory per week means the Russians would be vanquished in only 40 years if there are no further problems and if nuclear weapons are not employed (but they will be). This does not seem like a path to success unless there is a remarkable change. Does the mainstream, global media feel it has a vested interest in promoting an illogical legend about an imminent Ukrainian victory?
The Administration seems extremely content with military stalemate, though the media seems uncomfortable in reporting it that way. By calling Putin a "War Criminal," President Biden has made negotiations next impossible. Can anyone imagine a scenario in which Putin declares a willingness to negotiate peace so that he can be judged as a War Criminal and hanged? The Republicans have completely missed the point, choosing to tease the President about another age-related gaffe. No, it is not. It was a careful, deliberate and thoughtful proclamation guaranteed to ensure perpetual warfare, and you Republicans failed to take the President seriously because you are more interested in name-calling rather than dealing with matters of serious global politics.
The Administration regards Russia as a threat to world security, not our ally, and Russia is bogged down in a war that they cannot win. Putin has been suckered into the hugest blunder of his career, and President Biden will not let him off the hook.
President Biden is not particularly fond of Ukraine, either. Recall that he threatened to withhold aid from Ukraine while he was Vice President. If you are a Democrat, you probably believe it was to force the Ukrainians to clean up corruption in their military-industrial complex. If you are a Republican, you may believe it had to do with protecting Hunter Biden from his part in those corrupt dealings. But either way, as Vice President, Joe Biden was not a friend of Ukraine. Nothing has changed to make him love Ukraine today. He probably dislikes Ukraine less than he dislikes Russia, but he is far, very far, from a true ally. He sees no advantage in a strong Ukraine and certainly sees no advantage in relief for Russia He is content to damage both potential adversaries by supporting an almost perfect stalemate.
That is why the US supports Ukraine with maximal aid, some $113 billion in 2022, ten times more than the next largest contributor.
The US is far and away the largest investor in the Ukraine stalemate. Note that the red portion is the military part.
This war may never stop unless the US Congress develops enough spine to force President Biden and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to the negotiating table by threatening to limit funds for weapons. Similarly, a leadership change in Russia would be very helpful, though nobody, including the Russians, is quite sure how that is actually brought about.
